- First, Chris Brown of Smart Football looks at scouting as a whole. As usual, no one brings a more intelligent & insightful commentary. And we agree, the Combine is essentially a waste of time.
- Derrick Morgan will most likely be the Jacket chosen first in this year's draft. We expect him to be off the board within the first 15 picks. Morgan is obviously a terrific player who demonstrates maturity & commitment both on & off the field. Football Outsiders, who do more with statistics than anyone else out there, has created a very interesting metric to translate a players collegiate career into their success in the NFL. While not a completed work, SackSEER has tons of promise. We also agree with the model's assessment of Morgan.
- The predictions on where BayBay Thomas will be drafted range from the Dolphins at #12 to late second round. We see Thomas going late first to early second, with Dallas at #27 a distinct possibility. After a good pro day workout on Sunday where he showed no lingering effects of the broken foot suffered in March, Pat Yasinskas feels the Falcons may be interested at #19. So far it looks as if BayBay's unfortunate injury hasn't hurt his draft stock.
- The Tech player eliciting the most "controversy" among draftniks is Jonathan Dwyer. The gist of the argument is whether Dwyer is a product of our spread option offense or a legitimate NFL talent? The recent brouhaha over a positive drug test is much ado about nothing & shouldn't effect his draft status. His lackluster Combine performance coupled with our unconventional offense on the other hand may cause Dwyer to slide down some draft boards. One small bonus for the Diesel is that he's remained relatively healthy in a class of beaten up backs. Matt Waldman of Football Guys took a look at a Dwyer highlight loop & broke down the tape over at the New York Times Fifth Down Blog. Waldman concludes that Dwyer is a work in progress who will need to learn & progress to be an impact back at the next level. We can't disagree as this is the case for most collegiate players. What does become VERY clear in Waldman's analysis of Dwyer is just how devastatingly effective our spread option offense is. We're glad others are beginning to see the beauty. My guess on Dwyer is anywhere mid-second (Texans at #51 or Pats at #53) to late third round (Eagles at #87 & Chargers at #91).
- Finally there's Morgan Burnett. Many questioned why Burnett would choose to enter the draft after what was regarded a a sub-par junior year? I think early Friday night their questions will be answered. Burnett had a spectacular pro day at Tech, putting up some eye-popping numbers. Add to that his versatility (he can play both free & strong safety) and overall career body of work & you have a terrific football player. We expect Burnett to be off the board in the second round. Burnett could go as early as #42 to Tampa Bay while Kansas City at #50 & Dallas at #59 are also logical fits.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Draft Day & such....
All hail the new, improved, slightly truncated NFL draft. The eve is finally upon us & this is the deepest Tech class we can remember with four players assured of going & another (Cord Howard) on the fence. Some thoughts & links heading into tonight:
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Took a look at Matt Walden's stuff on Dwyer. Really interesting stuff, and I agree with almost all of his points, but I'm still not sure I see the lack of speed he's talking about in those plays. Dwyer had an average combine speed, but part of me thinks he's faster "relatively" in a football game.
ReplyDeleteThe highlights Walden used where from 2009. Last year Dwyer didn't get as many pitches because they were going to Anthony Allen. Allen's a great player, but he was often caught from behind inside the five, while more often Dwyer took it to the end zone. So Dwyer is at least faster than Allen, who could end up playing in the NFL also.
Please, anyone tell me if I'm watching this through rose tinted glasses, but...
In the first highlight, the Duke player has a chance to get ahead of Dwyer because Dwyer appears to be slowing down to make proper use of block in front of him, and then oh yeah, has to run through a player.
In the second play Dwyer puts the ball in the wrong hand forcing him to use his left arm to stiff arm. If he has the ball on the outside he can use the right to stiff arm which would help him get to the outside. Walden's right, few people can cut across the grain like that in the NFL, and Tech blocks great coming across the field, but he still has enough speed to burst past two defenders after running across the field.
On the third highlight, sure he has a five yard head start, but he appears to be running away from those FSU players. It doesn't look like they are closing on him and just run out of field. Maybe the Corner Back / Safety is closing, but he was ten yards down field at the snap
On the fourth highlight, I can see his point about the pitch getting Dwyer to the edge, but then he seems to just run by everyone.
etc. etc. etc.
I'm not saying Dwyer is burner, but I don't see anything on film that says he's so slow that a team should worry about it when they consder drafting him. There do seem to be plenty of legitimate questions about how he'll run out of an I-Formation (patients, vision, etc.) and I can understand those reasons pushing him into the second or even third round, but he seems fast enough to me.
Anyone who sees something on that film that demonstrates a lack of speed, please feel free to step up and point it out.
-frank
and I saw Tashard Choice run at Tech. He clearly had a hard time breaking long plays in college (was still a great player for tech) and he's still an effective nfl running back.
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