Friday, November 6, 2009

That's Why They Don't Call Him Doctor College Football

Tony Barnhart recently ran an article in the AJC on what the Jackets need from other teams to make it to the BCS championship game. The article is premature, as the Jackets have three tricky games left on their schedule, including a tough match up this weekend with Wake Forest. We just feel the need to correct some of Mr. Barnhart's latent SEC homer-ism.

Tech's main goal over the next three weeks is to make it to the ACC championship game. Beyond that they want to inch into the three or four spot going into Championship Weekend. That position will leave them in an excellent position to jump into the void left by the loser of the SEC championship game.

Here are Tony's keys to a Tech ascendancy to the BCS with or comments for each.

Before we start, again, REVERSE JINX, 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 YOU OWE ME A COKE!

1. Florida (8-0): Runs the table and beats LSU (not Alabama) in the SEC championship game to finish No. 1. Now everybody is playing for No. 2.

Totally wrong. Tech could care less if Florida and Alabama win out. Remember, Tech wants to get to three our four and then get bounced into the BCS championship game because there is no way the voters are going to allow a rematch to happen.

2. Texas (8-0): Loses its regular-season finale at Texas A&M on Nov. 26. Texas coach Mack Brown says he still has the best one-loss team in the country. Then, in stunning upset, the Longhorns lose to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game.

False, sort of. Texas does not have to lose twice, though it would help. Texas has a lower strength of schedule than Georgia Tech, and with up coming games against UCF, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M, its not getting any better. The computer poles would push a one loss Tech team ahead of Texas, but the problem is Tech has to overcome public opinion, so two losses by Texas would make Tech a sure favorite over the Longhorns. A closer call would be a single loss by Texas late in the season, as that would give Tech a chance to creep within a spot or two of the Longhorns before hand.

3. Alabama (8-0): Loses on Saturday to LSU. After failing to reach the SEC championship game, the Crimson Tide fan base and players are so deflated that they forget to show up at Auburn on Nov. 27 and lose for the second time.

Absolutely wrong, this would be disastrous. Suddenly LSU’s one loss season is a lot better than Tech’s one loss season. Their strength of schedule is below Techs, but they have remaining games against Arkansas, Ole Miss and Alabama, and a win over Alabama coupled with their only loss being to #1 Florida would propel LSU into the top five, and Alabama won’t drop below Tech.

4. Iowa (9-0): The Hawkeyes, who have won ugly just about every week, lose at Ohio State on Nov. 14. Whether or not Tech could catch Iowa would depend on the human polls because the computers really like Iowa (No. 2).

One loss and Iowa tumbles out of the top 10. The computers love Iowa because they keep winning, but they don’t love Iowa’s wins. One loss suddenly makes a lot of Iowa’s close wins really bad for their ranking.

5. Cincinnati (8-0): The Bearcats have been playing well despite an injury to quarterback Tony Pike, but they lose at home to West Virginia on Nov. 13 and again at Pittsburgh on Dec. 5.

Tony is obsessed with the idea that Tech can’t pass any of the undefeated teams in front of them without those teams losing two games. That's a clear case of SEC homer-ism/anti-ACC tendencies. The Bearcats may be a paper tiger, not to mix cat-like animal references. The only other top ten team to play a weaker schedule is Boise. The Bearcats schedule turns up the heat to finish the season with games against UConn, West By Gawd Virginia and Pittsburgh. One loss to any of those teams (or god forbid Illinois) will tumble Cincinnati out of the top ten.

6. TCU (8-0): The Horned Frogs lose at home against Utah on Nov. 14. TCU is good, but a 12-1 Georgia Tech will jump an 11-1 TCU.

So true Tony, So True.

7. Boise State (8-0): A 12-1 Georgia Tech would jump over an undefeated Boise State because the Broncos play such a weak schedule. Boise plays three opponents ranked 100 worse down the stretch.

Also very true, especially if Boise doesn’t absolutely crush Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada (el pistole!) and New Mexico State. Stop complaining about the BCS and play a real schedule.

8. Oregon (7-1): The Ducks are the hottest one-loss team in the country. They have to lose again. How about Nov. 21 at Arizona?

The PAC-10 is loaded this year. If Oregon doesn’t lose, there is no way Tech catches them. On the other hand, they have tough games left against International Harvester/Stanford, scrappy and dirty Dennis Erickson’s Arizona State, top 25 Arizona, and the Civil War against the Beavers. A second loss could easily be lurking in those weeds.

9. LSU (7-1): The Tigers upset Alabama and win the SEC West. But then LSU gets its doors blown off in a rematch with Florida in the SEC championship game to finish 11-2.

Lose you redneck, Cajun bastards, lose!

10. Georgia Tech (8-1): Georgia Tech runs the table beating Wake Forest, Duke and Georgia. Then it wins a rematch with Clemson in the ACC championship game to finish 12-1. The Yellow Jackets move into the No. 2 spot and play Florida for the national championship in Pasadena.

That would make us tingle all over.

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